AleaPrice

The solution for electricity prices forecasting in deregulated markets.

OMEL market model is operative since 2001 and the Powernext model is developed since year 2007. Forecasting models for other markets in Europe are in development.

• The solution is based on AleaSoft exclusive forecasting model, named AleaModel, outperforming current forecasting methods.
• AleaModel results from the latest advances in Statistics and Neural Networks. It is a hybrid model that combines Neural Networks, SARIMA models and regression, taking advantage of the benefits of each individual method.


• The resulting model of this hybridation is a Neural Network model with a SARIMA structure, that overcomes traditional Neuronal Networks limitations:
  • The SARIMA structure leads to a transparent model and guarantees the selection of an optimal model.
  • The model parameters are automatically updated, they do not need manual training.
• The adaptive scheme adjusts the neural network parameters to its more recent performance on a on-going basis. This adaptive strategy allows the model reaction when changes is the tendency occur and avoids the need of occasional training.

AleaModel has been proven and demonstrated: it has been successfully used in important utilities and TSO's, improving current forecasting methods.